Will Northeast Flooding Spur Greater Outmigration?
March 31, 2010
While the record-breaking rains that are inducing wide-spread flooding in the Northeast are not causing damage on par with that caused in Louisiana by Hurricane Katrina, the flooding will likely spur additional population outmigration from the region, which had already been experiencing the greatest population loss through outmigration for the past 20 years (please see our August 2009 Age Curve Report).
In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the state of Louisiana saw an exodus of an estimated 300,000 people, many of whom left the state for good. The state did not see a return to positive net gains in domestic migration until 2008, some three years after the disaster.
States from Maine down to Connecticut experienced record-breaking rain during the month of March and many areas are now experiencing record-flooding as their rivers are starting to crest–many for the second time this month. The flood waters have knocked out sewage treatment plants, destroyed some bridges, shut down Amtrak's Boston-New York City rali line, and closed numerous roads–including parts of I-95, the primary route from Boston to New York City. Thousands of residents from various flood-hit areas have been evacuated and National Guard units have been mobilized in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.
Although there is not a "Katrina-like" population exodus out of the hardest hit states, the disruption and damage caused by the flooding will undoubtedly provide more incentive to those who had already been thinking about moving away.
In fact, we expect that hardest-hit Rhode Island, which was already experiencing overall negative population growth, will show the biggest decline percentage-wise in domestic migration for 2010. The flooding may also noticeably affect domestic migration trending for Massachusetts, Connecticut and Maine.
