Model Age Curve Report Master Portfolio Performance Update
February 15, 2010
Our 2010 NDR Road Map called for market weakness in late January before heading higher into April. The sharp pullback has been accompanied by a healthy retreat in investor sentiment. The NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll fell back to 51.9, placing it in to the attractive band.
The model Beacon Master Portfolio is showing a return of 75.8 percent, and represents a 57.9 percent outperformance over the S&P Global Index ETF (IOO) return of 17.9 percent, since our "Generational Opportunity" buy signal of December 5, 2008.
The model's trend of outperformance is continuing into its second year from December 5, 2009 to February 12, 2010. The model is up 4.5 percent versus a negative return of 8.9 percent for the S&P Global Index ETF (IOO).
The month of January was a month of two halves, starting with market gains, high hopes for further gains on the back of encouraging economic numbers, and hints of a positive earnings season. It finished the month in negative territory over fears of a pending Chinese slowdown and Greek bond defaults. This sharp pullback has corrected many of our concerns over extreme optimism and we now expect markets to recover their footing.
In many ways investors, including us, sometimes get caught up with trying to fine tune the market over the short term to such an extent we forget the forest for the trees. What we should be doing is spending less time watching what the market averages are doing, and more time focusing on the discovery of undervalued potential "Super Stocks" that sell for 75 cents or less in the Dollar. Therefore, we have decided to recommit cash to stocks we feel are undervalued and whose potential risk adjusted returns are attractive.
We have replaced our short term stop-loss at 1060 on the S&P 500 or 106 on the ETF (SPY). At this point, we would look to shift to a more defensive portfolio stance to protect the model's capital.
Performance from 5th Dec. 2008 to 12 Feb. 2010
Model Portfolio/Index |
Return% |
Var.% |
| Model Beacon Master Port. | 75.8 | |
| S&P Global | 17.9 | 57.9 |
| S&P 500 | 22.9 | 52.9 |
| Canada MSCI Index | 65.2 | 10.6 |
| UK MSCI Index | 29.6 | 46.2 |
| Commodity Index | 16.9 | 58.9 |
| US Bond Index | 4.7 | 71.1 |
Performance from 5th Dec. 2009 to 12 Feb. 2010
Model Portfolio/Index |
Return% |
Var.% |
| Model Beacon Master Port. | 4.5 | |
| S&P Global | -2.7 | 7.2 |
| S&P 500 | -8.9 | 13.4 |
| Canada MSCI Index | -1.6 | 6.1 |
| UK MSCI Index | -7.8 | 12.3 |
| Commodity Index | -5.9 | 10.4 |
| US Bond Index | -0.2 | 4.7 |
