Model Beacon Master Portfolio Performance Update
January 29, 2010
This week we saw fear return to the stock market, as the Bulls scratched their heads and slid down the "Slope of Hope." The sharp pull back has been accompanied by a healthy pull back in investor sentiment. The Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll fell back to 50.4, placing it in to the neutral band.
The model Beacon Master Portfolio is showing a return of 70.3 percent, and represents a 51.0 percent outperformance over the S&P Global Index ETF (IOO) return of 19.3 percent, since our "Generational Opportunity" buy signal of December 5, 2008.
The model's trend of outperformance is continuing into its second year from December 5, 2009 to January 29, 2010. The model is up 1.2 percent versus a small negative return of 7.8 percent for the S&P Global Index ETF (IOO).
Due to our over all market caution, we had placed a stop-loss at 1080 on the S&P 500 or 108 on the ETF (SPY). Today's S&P 500 close of 1073 was below our stop and we will look to shift to a more defensive portfolio stance early next week to protect the model's capital. Our 2010 NDR Road Map called for market weakness in late January before heading higher into April. It is too soon to rule this out, however we will admit after this weeks' market action, it is looking less likely.
More details on this can be found in the 2010 outlook for markets in our recently released Age Curve Report "Outlook" issue.
Performance from 5th Dec. 2008 to 29 Jan. 2010
Model Portfolio/Index |
Return% |
Var.% |
| Model Beacon Master Port. | 70.3 | |
| S&P Global | 19.3 | 51.0 |
| S&P 500 | 22.1 | 48.2 |
| Canada MSCI Index | 58.3 | 12.0 |
| UK MSCI Index | 32.0 | 38.3 |
| Commodity Index | 15.2 | 55.1 |
| US Bond Index | 5.1 | 65.2 |
Performance from 5th Dec. 2009 to 29 Jan. 2010
Model Portfolio/Index |
Return% |
Var.% |
| Model Beacon Master Port. | 1.2 | |
| S&P Global | -7.8 | 9.0 |
| S&P 500 | -3.3 | 4.5 |
| Canada MSCI Index | -5.7 | 6.9 |
| UK MSCI Index | -6.1 | 7.3 |
| Commodity Index | -7.2 | 8.4 |
| US Bond Index | 0.3 | 0.9 |
