Model Age Curve Report Master Portfolio Performance Update
March 15, 2010
Equity markets continue to follow our 2010 NDR Road Map by continuing to climb the 'Wall of Worry.' There are reasons to keep our feet near the exit, but as long as markets do not fall below their recent lows, the bulls get the benefit of the doubt and the up trend to the April highs is in tact until proven otherwise.
The model Beacon Master Portfolio is showing a return of 93.4 percent, and represents a 67.5 percent outperformance over the S&P Global Index ETF (IOO) return of 25.9 percent, since our "Generational Opportunity" buy signal of December 5, 2008.
The model's trend of outperformance is continuing into its second year from December 5, 2009 to March 12, 2010. The model is up 15.0 percent versus a negative return of 2.7 percent for the S&P Global Index ETF (IOO).
In many ways investors, including us, sometimes get caught up with trying to fine tune the market over the short term to such an extent we forget the forest for the trees. What we should be doing is spending less time watching what the market averages are doing, and more time focusing on the discovery of undervalued potential "Super Stocks" that sell for 75 cents or less in the Dollar.
The recent results from Quicksilver (ZQK) show this to good effect. The shares back in April sold on a Price to Sales of 0.1, which means you could buy $1.00 of their recovering revenue for 10 cents. The shares have doubled from their February levels of around $2.00 and are very overbought short term. However still offer good long term value on a Price to Sales of 2.0 and are backed by the growing demand of Generation Y.
Our short term stop-loss continues at 1060 on the S&P 500 or 106 on the ETF (SPY). At this point, we would look to shift to a more defensive portfolio stance to protect the model's capital.
Performance from 5th Dec. 2008 to 12 Mar. 2010
Model Portfolio/Index |
Return% |
Var.% |
| Model Beacon Master Port. | 93.4 | |
| S&P Global | 25.9 | 67.5 |
| S&P 500 | 31.3 | 62.1 |
| Canada MSCI Index | 79.3 | 14.1 |
| UK MSCI Index | 37.6 | 55.8 |
| Commodity Index | 19.4 | 74.0 |
| US Bond Index | 4.8 | 88.6 |
Performance from 5th Dec. 2009 to 12 Mar. 2010
Model Portfolio/Index |
Return% |
Var.% |
| Model Beacon Master Port. | 15.0 | |
| S&P Global | -2.7 | 17.2 |
| S&P 500 | 4.0 | 11.0 |
| Canada MSCI Index | 6.9 | 8.1 |
| UK MSCI Index | -2.1 | 17.1 |
| Commodity Index | -3.8 | 18.8 |
| US Bond Index | 0 | 15.0 |
