Model Age Curve Report Master Portfolio Performance Update
March 8, 2010
The model Beacon Master Portfolio is showing a return of 89.8 percent, and represents a 65.3 percent outperformance over the S&P Global Index ETF (IOO) return of 24.5 percent, since our "Generational Opportunity" buy signal of December 5, 2008.
The model's trend of outperformance is continuing into its second year from December 5, 2009 to March 5, 2010. The model is up 12.8 percent versus a negative return of 3.7 percent for the S&P Global Index ETF (IOO).
Source: Ned Davis Research
This week we saw the Bulls remain in command, as the market continued to march in step with the 2010 Dow Jones Industrial Cycle Composite. This week saw out performance from the small to mid caps stocks, as investor's risk appetite increased.
The continued out performance from the Consumer Discretionary sector continues to go against conventional wisdom that the consumer is in terrible shape. We put this down to two factors, firstly that Wall Street analysts covering this sector have been extremely pessimistic about their earnings forecasts and company outlooks. 90.6 percent of Consumer Discretionary companies have reported positive earnings surprises versus 76.0 percent of S&P 500 companies. Secondly we are starting to see the positive impact of demographics (Generation Y) within the sector; shoes, clothing and the food industry.
We maintain our short term stop-loss at 1060 on the S&P 500 or 106 on the ETF (SPY). At this point, we would look to shift to a more defensive portfolio stance to protect the model's capital.
Performance from 5th Dec. 2008 to 5 March 2010
Model Portfolio/Index |
Return% |
Var.% |
| Model Beacon Master Port. | 89.8 | |
| S&P Global | 24.5 | 65.3 |
| S&P 500 | 29.9 | 59.9 |
| Canada MSCI Index | 77.2 | 12.6 |
| UK MSCI Index | 36.8 | 53.0 |
| Commodity Index | 21.5 | 68.3 |
| US Bond Index | 5.0 | 84.8 |
Performance from 5th Dec. 2009 to 5 March 2010
Model Portfolio/Index |
Return% |
Var.% |
| Model Beacon Master Port. | 12.8 | |
| S&P Global | -3.7 | 16.5 |
| S&P 500 | 2.9 | 9.9 |
| Canada MSCI Index | 5.6 | 7.2 |
| UK MSCI Index | -2.7 | 13.0 |
| Commodity Index | -2.1 | 9.6 |
| US Bond Index | 0.1 | 8.0 |
