The 3 Beacon Blog

Demographic Snapshot: Turkey

August 3, 2009

Overview:

Today we highlight the demographic landscape of Turkey, a country we believe may become one of the longer-term surprising emerging market stars. Turkey's "spending wave"–or consumer spending–is set to remain strong until around 2022.

The Turkey ETF (TUR) is currently trading at $47.7 versus its 2008 high of $58 and is up 147 percent against the S&P Global ETF (IOO) return of 53 percent since the March 2009 lows. The relative strength chart below shows it is nearly back to levels seen last August.

Economic Background:

Placed 41st in Forbes 2009 Best Countries for Business:

Turkey's dynamic economy is a complex mix of modern industry and commerce along with a traditional agriculture sector that still accounts for more than 35% of employment. It has a strong and rapidly growing private sector, yet the state still plays a major role in basic industry, banking, transport, and communication. The largest industrial sector is textiles and clothing, which accounts for one-third of industrial employment; it faces stiff competition in international markets with the end of the global quota system.

However, other sectors, notably the automotive and electronics industries, are rising in importance within Turkey's export mix. Real GNP growth has exceeded 6% in many years, but this strong expansion has been interrupted by sharp declines in output in 1994, 1999, and 2001. The economy turned around with the implementation of economic reforms, and 2004 GDP growth reached 9%, followed by roughly 5% annual growth from 2005-07. Due to global contractions, annual growth is estimated to have fallen to 3.5% in 2008. Inflation fell to 7.7% in 2005 - a 30-year low - but climbed back to 8.5% in 2007.

Demographic Landscape:

Population

2009 Population 76,773,900 

2025 Estimated Population 89,557,000 (Growth 16.7%)

Generations

1965 to 1984 Generation X: 29,408,000

1985 to 2004 Generation Y: 27,748,000 (Decline 5.6%%)

2005 to 2024 (Est.) Generation Z: 26,864,000 (Decline 3.2%)

2025 to 2044 (Est.) Blenders: 24,185,000 (Decline 9.9%)

Turkey's birth numbers peaked in 1982 at 1,568,700 versus a 2010 estimate of 1,380,100 (a fall of 12 percent). The number of children per women has fallen from 5.94 in 1965 to 2.11 and is forecast to fall to 1.85 by 2044

 

 

2025 Turkey Population Pyramid